450 gains: These results would be better than in 2022, when local elections took place in Greater London. Labour would look on its way to becoming the largest party in Westminster, even if short of a majority. 700 gains: The best local elections for at least a decade. So to spin these results as any other than catastrophic for the Conservatives would be a very difficult sell. The government is trying to sell it as mid-term blues, and culture secretary Lucy Frazer claimed that Tories are "gaining the trust" of the British people, and that Rishi Sunak is "getting the country back on track" (see 9.17 post).īut our political editor, Beth Rigby, discovered that 1,000 losses as worst case scenario was just their PR spin - 700 losses was internally viewed as the worst case. The Conservatives lost over a third of the seats they were defending. The Conservatives lost 1,064 seats - so it was worse than a "very bad night". 
1,000 losses: A very bad night, with a third of all seats defended by the Conservatives lost.750 losses: This would indicate a clear swing to Labour, but still less than opinion polls imply.500 losses: The party could argue "mid-term blues" and will assume Labour could be caught before the general election.Fewer than 300 losses: This would see the party winning council seats back from Independents, with Labour and the Lib Dems not prospering.Here are the performance benchmarks - and how each party actually did:
There were 8,000 seats up for grabs in the 2023 local elections that took place on Thursday.Īround 70% of the English electorate was eligible to cast a ballot, and it gave us a real indication of what we might see at the next general election.
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